EMERGING SCENARIO OF INDIAN REPUBLIC - POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE - NEXT 7-10 YEARS

The recent Indian elections have thrown away all the political pundits into dustbins of history. They are searching for new theories for opposition unity to throw away Modi. Mamata was the hero for some time almost pushing her to misadventure in Goa. Seeing threat in it for him, Telangana supremo Chandrasekhar Rao wanted to become the PM and sought the help of Pawar and Uddhav; Pawar himself was(is) aspiring for it. Now the hero is Kejriwal, and he may try misadventures before bringing stability to Punjab. The tax rich super Municipality of NCR is a different cup of tea in governance. I am analysing the roots of the phenomena of Indian politics so far during the past 75 years: The distant past in fast forward mode and the recent ones in some detail to forecast the possibilities in the near to midterm future.

Immediately after independence, though there were many leaders to aspire to be PM, Nehru got it, mostly due to the backing of Gandhiji. He used it well to gain an international stature. The people of a country which was enslaved for centuries, were in rapture to see an Indian, as a world renown leader. The early demise of Gandhiji, Sardar Patel added to Nehru's strength internally. Other factors were the death (or disappearance?) of Subhash Chandra Bose, withdrawal by Ambedkar, and later the death of Shyama Prasad Mukherji. Indian communists chose to be puppets of USSR or Mao and were mostly paper tigers after strong actions against them. Nehru cleverly used socialism to pit the Congress left against the amorphous Congress leaders ranging in ideas from strong Hindutva to anti- Hindu “secularism” to various anti-modern economic thoughts. Linguistic division of the States absorbed much of the energies of the Congress politicians and even the various non-Congress socialists. Though Nehru opposed it, it helped him to be an unchallenged leader to be PM, strengthening the TINA factor. Lohia looked more like a comic factor and his casteist theories were picked up much later after the euphoria of linguistic States ebbed. It took the humiliation from China to shatter the Nehru aura.

Nehru's death soon after (after 17 years as PM) gave a break for India to come to a new balance with opportunities for other aspiring politicians. Lal Bahadur Sastri might have been a search for Indianness in PM, (as Nehru was seen more in British mould). He died too soon. Difficult to speculate what Indian politics and governance would have been had he lived longer and was PM. But during his short tenure he did a major political mistake which changed Indian political scenario irretrievably. That was the pushing of Hindi too fast, giving rise to anti-Hindi agitation in Tamil Nadu. Only north Indian leader who reached to the people of TN was Indira Gandhi. Still Congress suffered as Dravidian politics, which was merely agitationist with anti-Brahmin, anti-North Indians (described as Aryans), took a turn to get into power. Since then, no national party could get a majority in TN to rule. Dravidian politics is not about the four or five States with Dravidian languages. In fact, TN politics is limited only to “Tamil only nationalism” along with anti- Brahmin (anti- North) rhetoric. It started revolving around a leader with great speaking capability in Tamil and it was challenged by a charismatic leader leading to two major Dravidian parties, who alternate in power. Charisma, freebies, some fear mongering, etc. are the methods of keeping power. One of the parties has totally become dynastic, with challenges within dynasty. They try to cover it up with a slogan of secularism. Now they are searching for new fears like removal of NEET, etc. For some more years it is unlikely that TN will have a party like Congress or BJP in power even as lead coalition partner. It is the Tamil rhetoric and freebies and corruption to get votes, are the main forces. The fact that no Tamil politician can become a PM in such a milieu, is not told by the political pundits. They pumped up Stalin as the challenge to Modi. TN politicians can be content to be a partner to a coalition in the Centre as DMK did with BJP led NDA and Congress led UPA. They can negotiate for ministership in their favourite departments. But with a leader like Modi the arithmetic is different as he is managing majority in Lok Sabha without them also. Now may be in Rajya Sabha as well.

It is in fact a partially modified TN model which had played out in West Bengal and is playing out now under Mamata Banerji. Though the long rule by CPM was seen as ideological, it was really playing up on Bengali nationalism and “we are different and superior intellectually than other Indians” attitude. A long list of great Indians produced by Bengal, men and women, who were pioneers in almost all fields including Hindu renaissance would naturally rise the Bengali pride. Congress which ruled the State could not capture that pride for a pan India presence of Bengalis in the political field. With a swing towards idealism in the youth during the Naxalbari uprising, it was easier for the Communists to come to power and later decimate the opposition by various methods including terrorising the locals by the cadres using physical violence. That continues even now as Mamata Banerji has found it necessary to win seats. Congress had propped her up against the reformist CPM Buddhadeb hoping that they can come back. Bengal cannot be captured without having a Bengali leader who can raise and capitalise on the Bengali pride. There is no pan-Indian Bengali leader who can play a double role, of being Bengal's pride, speaking in powerful Bengali, and also accepted or admired in other parts of India. May be Shyama Prasad Mukherji might have filled up that role. Feelings for Pranab Mukherji went up in Bengal only after he was repeatedly snubbed by the Congress. Jyoti Basu missed a chance because of CPM obduracy. So, to have a foot hold in Bengal by national parties in Bengal is remote now. What after Mamata? She has several years ahead of her. Can she succeed in installing a dynasty to follow TN model? To have a leader emerge in Bengal outside of TMC now is very difficult as she/he will be physically attacked by TMC cadres and if she/he operates from outside Bengal it will defeat the purpose: a Cach 22 situation. Thus, Bengal will continue to be what it is now, with a leader who can invoke the Bengali exclusivism, fight with the Centre and use violence to get seats/votes. But to expect this model to succeed in any other State of India, is a pipedream. Mamata will be used by other political parties to shout at Modi, but they won't cede her more space nationally. So will be the TN model. And these two State leaders cannot join to play a major role as they have very little in common.

Coming to Odisha, Naveen Patnaik understands Indian politics better than any others. He knows that if he ventures out of Odisha, he will lose it all, as Kamaraj did when he ventured into Delhi. What after him? Big question mark. Odisha is a totally different model, unlike TN or WB. No exclusivist rhetoric nor capturing the old Kalinga legacy. Probably it will be a Switzerland in Indian politics.

Coming to Kerala, it would appear that two national parties are in the field. But it is the Malayali pride which operates. We are different. Our festivals are celebrated differently. The God's own land. King Bali, Parasurama etc. Christianity came here first to India. Arabs traded with us in the hoary past. Special links to Gulf States. Marxism takes a different shape. Diaspora all over India and world. Constantly high lighting corruption as morning tea and evening drinks. Money-order model of economy which Vijayan wants to change by attracting private investments. CPM clings on to this Kerala model as it is the only State left for them. What after Vijayan? Congress has weakened considerably. But it is unlikely whether this model will change. Also, unlikely that a leader from Kerala will emerge as pan Indian figure and is able to change Kerala's role in Centre other than being a second or third fiddle, like Antony. Again, it is unlikely that the States of WB, TN and Kerala can work solidly together. TN has continuous problems with Kerala on water. Mamata will see a red flag with CPM.

Karnataka interestingly is tuned with national politics though some local chauvinists try to invoke Kannada exclusivism probably TN style. Also, there are other language groups. Also, Karnataka had a PM from the State.

Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are examples of the failure of language as uniting force. Ironically the first linguistic division took place in Andhra after Potti Sriramulu's self-immolation. Congress's ill treatment of AP and its CM's gave rise to TDP: The Telugu Pride. TDP had dynasty problems. Chandra Babu Naidu's over ambition brought back Congress. YSR's death coupled with mishandling of AP partition has led to Congress losing both States. TRC's Chandrasekhar is ambitious and does not want to follow Naveen Patnaik. He may be thinking that he may become a PM like P V Narasimha Rao, forgetting that PVNR was in Congress. He thinks he can get support of North Indian Muslims by taking a strident anti BJP stand. Even AP may not be with him. The recent 2022 election should be a wake-up call for him. In the final analysis it is not easy for Congress or BJP to capture AP or Telangana. For AP or T politicians, it is best to join one winning national party as alliance and get some plum seats in Delhi. As both AP and T cannot work together, they won't carry weight as undivided AP. They may remain as uncertain elements in Indian politics, as they are also dynastic at its top leadership.

Punjab is an interesting State. Congress was strong even earlier from the time of independence. Punjab had with it, HP, part of Uttarakhand (then UP), Haryana. A big State. Stalwarts like Pratap Singh Kairon laid the foundation for a resurgent State after the devastating partition of the country. The Sikhs were dominating politics, business etc. along with Hindu Punjabis, though they were not in majority as a population. They were a great force in Delhi as well as immigrants, enterprising ones. The linguistic State virus caught on some Sikh Punjabi politicians, who mixed up religion also in such demands. They were Akalis. Master Tara Singh was a strong advocate. These were the seeds of later separatist extremism. In the reorganization Punjab became a small State with Haryana, etc gone out of it. Even in the truncated Punjab, Congress was in control but had challenges from the Akalis who had a few factions. Indira Gandhi played a divide-and-rule tactics by propping some factions like that of Bhindaranwale, who used his privileges to destroy some Akali factions even by killing. He tried to promote his own agenda of an exclusivist Sikh nation, the beginnings of actions for Khalistan. He was actively supported by Pakistan with arms, training and safe haven for the terrorists. Punjab was in trouble. IG realized her mistake and took strong action to kill the terrorists and destroy their build- up of arms. Even to the point of entering the Holy Temple in which the terrorists and Bhindaranwale took shelter. Bold political step to correct her own mistake and save India. Operation Blue Star was technically successful but changed the political landscape of Punjab. Akali groups became successful at the cost of Congress. A regional party was born. IG paid with her life. The emotions led to the dynastic politics in Congress with Rajiv Gandhi with little political experience became PM. Post her death the anti-Sikh riots in Delhi was mishandled by Rajiv Gandhi and Congress party, had a terrible impact on Sikh psyche. Pakistan exploited it well and Punjab was plunged into serious terrorism, first of the kind in India. Economic, academic activities and social life came to a standstill, for a decade. Decision by P V N R to hold even a seriously curtailed election and subsequent speedy actions by the elected CM (Congress) Beant Singh jump started the process of normalcy after most of the terrorists were eliminated by K P S Gill. Beant Singh himself was killed in his office. Akalis led by Badal came to power. They had sympathies for the terrorists, some openly calling them martyrs. Some of the persons from the Punjab police which quelled the secession, were harassed by govt and human right activists. The West which was always jealous of Indian democracy and disliked its neutrality in Cold war, having good relations with USSR/ Russia welcomed many of the Khalistani terrorists and gave asylum and citizenship. They were the conduits used by Pakistan for funding local terrorists. The groups are active in Canada and UK even now. One should remember these hurt feelings of Sikhs and also the complex nature of the religious politics, the Panth etc. AAP may be able to adapt to these Punjab-specific issues and add welfare veneer into it. The big question is: where is the money? Can they attract private capital? There is a possibility that some rich Sikh investors from Canada may invest. There are some dangers that Khalistani sympathisers may get into the act of capturing some AAP persons. Akali Dal which was a strong regional party, has weakened considerably especially with dynastic politics. Congress was the only national party with a strong base. It has now fractured. Doubtful if it can revive. Can AAP transform into a strong Punjab-regional party, or will it fritter its great gains in Punjab by attempting national forays? Kejriwal cannot become Punjab's leader as it needs a Sikh face and strong presence. There is a Cach 22 situation here. BJP for the same reason cannot get majority or even lead position in Punjab. Congress had that advantage. But Congress is weak all over India and threw away Punjab advantage. So, Punjab will be an uncertain element for national politics. May go into a peculiar regional mode.

Coming to Gujarat and Maharashtra, the political leaders from these States have played national roles and have the advantage of speaking Hindi as well. Hindutva had strong origins in Maharashtra and later in the 1970’s Siva Sena used it for national presence and for helping BJP rise as well. It is the Sena BJP combine which got maximum seats and votes. BJP's tactical mistake pushed Uddhav as a coalition. Will they reunite as partners? Otherwise, Maharashtra politics may be with fragile coalitions still having a potential to be with the Centre as well. Sena has the problem of being regional espousing Maharashtrian causes, being national with Hindutva, and also secular suiting the non-BJP coalitions they may have. Plus, dynastic pulls. Gujarat as of now is mostly bipolar with Congress and BJP. Very unlikely to have a regional party rise or even AAP.

It is the big Hindi States like Rajasthan, MP, UP, Bihar and relatively smaller ones like Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh which will be the mainstay for the national parties to capture the power in Centre. Then Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat. These three are big States and will add to the power in Centre. The Northeast etc will add to the total, a little more and there will be no challenging leaders from there. Odisha, AP, Telangana, are major uncertain elements; Congress or BJP cannot capture power in these three States in the near future. But the regional parties there will have a large bargaining power in case the Hindi States do not give their seats to the national parties in full. TN will be a fence sitter waiting for a more fractured coalition in the Centre. Kerala will be with CPM as long as Vijayan is there, and if Congress keeps up its infighting there. BJP has understood this situation and concentrating on Hindi States, Karnataka, Gujarat and Maharashtra and NE. If they patch up with Sena, they may be stronger. As of now if they get into good books with Naveen Patnaik and AP, they can manage better. Congress had burned bridges with AP and T.

Almost all the Hindi States were Congress strong holds since independence as also most southern States. Even the fissures within Congress party were tackled by IG by splitting the party under socialist slogans. Emergency was declared to quell the mounting opposition outside Congress with JP movement which had many elements of anarchy without a coherent goal for India. Emergency rule laid the strong foundation for dynastic politics in India, with Nehru-Gandhi family. There was a brief loss of power for Congress post Emergency 1977-79. Before that, seeds for casteist politics among some young politicians harassed during the Emergency, were sown by the near anarchist JP movement. The Janata Party experiment with all spectrum anti-Congress politicians showed the weakness of the opposition, which could not unite due to the ambitions of various parties. Dynastic Congress was strengthened even after the death of Sanjay Gandhi, the main force of Emergency rule. Some politicians inducted by Sanjay such as V P Singh entered Congress and ironically were the force for anti-Congress politics and for weakening Congress hold in Hindi States later. IG post 1979 was strong and her sudden death as a martyr strengthened Congress further. Unfortunately, the dynastic politics which put the novice Rajiv Gandhi as PM led to many mistakes by Congress, starting with the terrible anti-Sikh riots which gave rise to upsurge of terrorism and anti-Centre Akali parties in Punjab. Shah Bano case put Congress openly as Muslim appeasement party, a feeling which was simmering much earlier in northern States and Maharashtra and Gujarat. IG in her times played the Hindu card very well with symbolism of her dress, Rudraksha, Cow-Calf symbols and later as Hand in Abhaya Mudra pose. She also cultivated her image as Durga post Bangladesh liberation. But she played Muslim appeasement quietly by giving illegal Bangladesh Muslims citizenship in NE states specially in Assam, leading to the disastrous Nellie mass killing and Assam student insurgency. In WB CPM was using the tactics of giving citizenship to illegal Muslims to get votes. All these came under the general umbrella of secularism as propagated by the politicians. IG placed the words Secularism and Socialism without definition, in the Constitution during Emergency. It is to be noted that the founders of Constitution have carefully avoided these words. Post IG, the balancing of Hindu sentiments especially in North India was done in a bang-bang mode. If Shah Bano case hurt Hindu sentiment, it was balanced by giving Shilanyas in Ayodhya for Ram Lulla. That became the focus for demanding Mandir there. Congress could not handle it well. The “secular” left denying the birthplace of Ram and stalling all efforts for a reconciliation between Hindus and Muslims in Ayodhya, made things worse with the Hindu minds especially in the North, Maharashtra and Gujarat. In Jammu &Kashmir many more mistakes were done sowing seeds for overt terrorist groups to step up their presence. Thus, an overall perception in the North was that Congress was anti-Hindu and the splinter opposition groups were busy building their casteist/communal bases to enable the victory of some of their MLA's and MP's. Their idea was to weaken Congress so that coalition govts will become necessary in the Centre and States, giving them the bargaining power to get into the Cabinets. Some ambitious Congress insiders like V P Singh were also working out methods of dethroning Rajiv Gandhi who had a huge majority due to the sympathy wave after IG death. Big ticket corruption cases like Bofors dented the clean image of RG (unlike that of most politicians who were seen as corrupt). Mishandling the responses to these cases further weakened Congress and VPS used these perceptions to emerge as a perceived Saviour against corruption. Still, he could not capture Congress. But he managed to get an all-spectrum anti Congress Front, called the National Front. It had many regional parties, and BJP. CPM, supported the coalition govt under VPS from outside. Congress had to sit in opposition as NF managed to erode Congress. This is a major turning point in Indian politics. BJP used this opportunity to build its Ram Mandir movement which was its symbol to unify the huge Hindu voters against Congress and other parties which claimed to be secular but followed the Muslim appeasement policies practised by Congress. BJP managed to change the perception of people that they were not secular but anti-Hindu. Rath Yatra of Advani was a major movement to capture the Hindu minds in the North, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Somewhat rattled by this development, VPS attempted a plan to split Hindu votes permanently on caste lines and the Left and some ambitious young politicians in UP and Bihar backed the idea of Mandalisation which was pushed as a reservation policy by VPS govt. The opposition by the student community was cruelly handled by VPS govt. Also, many Hindu people all over India started marching towards Ayodhya with stones to build the temple. Advani started in a vehicle looking like a Ratha which Ram would have used. That was the massive turn of the minds of Hindus away from the earlier Congress idea of secularism and ignoring of Hindu sentiments. The Mandalisation did not change this as all those who marched belonged to various castes of India and the scorn by the secular elites that BJP was a Brahmin-Bania party did not appear to be true for the Ram movement. Earlier during RG's govt there were two massive TV serials running for months by Ramanand Sagar on Ramayana and Mahabharata. It is not suggested that they were politically motivated. But their unprecedented success was an indication of some unifying aspect of Hindu civilisation. The elites would not have cared to notice it. A few years from then, was the Rath Yatra and an upsurge by people. Instead of handling it tactfully VPS wanted to show his opposition openly probably to get the support of the left, ordered arrest of the peacefully marching people. Advani was arrested too. BJP pulled out its support. Congress, which was the main opposition, used it to vote for no-confidence motion against VPS govt which lost heavily. That was also an indication of how parties viewed Ram movement.

In addition, another set of disastrous actions by VPS govt in J&K almost when it took over, led to compounding of many mistakes earlier by RG govt. Terrorism in J&K got entrenched and led to a massive exodus of Hindus referred to as Kashmiri Pundits. It was not in the popular mind so much then but subsequent terrorist actions all over India by those claiming to do them for Islam, added to further consolidation, by BJP, of Hindus, irrespective of castes. That happened in later years, but during the 1990’s and a little earlier, it is the fall of Congress and its failure to balance Hindu sentiments tactfully and the actions by VPS govt during the Ram movement led to a massive upward thrust of what is called as Hindutva, but really a sort of Hindu awakening especially in the North, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Mandalisation did not affect it. Ironically for those who thought that it will weaken Hindu consolidation, many OBC's came to the front in politics and also in Hindu leadership.

In addition, Indian economy was not giving opportunities for the aspiring youth, nor could it take care of the poor despite slogans, because of the continuation of licence-permit-quota-inspector raj called socialism, even by RG who wanted to be a moderniser. Despite the fall of NF and many splinter groups, Congress could not capture the popular minds, as was seen by the first phase of elections in 1991. It was the sad demise of RG during an election rally in TN because of a suicide bomber from the Sri Lankan Tamil terrorist group called LTTE, that gave sympathy votes to Congress, which got more seats but still short of simple majority on Lok Sabha. PVNR ably took charge and managed a major economic crisis which was the outcome of cumulative poor performance by Congress and the loose coalitions who came for a brief period. Indian economy was liberalised substantially leading to a faster growth. There was not enough time left for Congress to consolidate its power base in the North due its infighting around the dynastic politics and not supporting PM PVNR in full. BJP had turbocharged the Ram movement and the march towards Ayodhya was speeded up. People from the Northern states, Maharashtra, Gujarat and even from other states were converging towards Ayodhya, in a very speedy manner with emotions, rhetoric, and actions which spiralled probably beyond a pace familiar to the Indian politicians. The structure of Babri Masjid was pulled down by the Kar Sevaks in June 1992. Many top BJP leaders and Sena leaders were arrested. There were also a number of Hindu- Muslim conflicts, mostly local till there were a series of bomb blasts in Bombay, then under Congress rule. The intellectual rhetoric by the entrenched elite groups did not capture the basic structural change in the Indian minds for the causes of Hindus, which they felt, were totally ignored by Congress and the left leaning intellectuals. In the 1996 elections BJP for the first time emerged as the largest party in Lok Sabha but not yet in full majority. Congress which was back to dynastic control with Sonia Gandhi tried to capture power at the Centre by having all others to defeat BJP in Lok Sabha the 13-day old Vajpayee govt. But it could not get into power as some in Congress and other parties did not want a foreigner (SG) to be a PM. It led to a few breakaway parties like NCP with Sharad Pawar who had ambitions to be a PM. Compromise solutions to keep away BJP which was treated as a political untouchable due to the demolition of the Babri structure in Ayodhya, led to fragile coalitions each lasting about a year or so. As had been the experience with such coalitions without the anchor of a national party with reasonable number of seats with it, (two times earlier), the arrangements collapsed in 1998. BJP with a few alliance parties under the banner of NDA came to power. Immediately on assuming office Vajpayee govt took India's nuclear dilemma by the horns and declared India a nuclear power after exploding bombs. It led to more of US sanctions. NDA govt faced it and also expanded FDI and liberalisation. ICT sector was opened up. Some allies of NDA were giving headaches to PM. Finally, it was defeated by one vote as AIDMK, an alliance partner withdrew support in 1999. In the interim the Kargil war unleashed by Pakistan was deftly handled and led to success enhanced Vajpayee's stature adding to have sorted out the nuclear issue earlier. Also, during his tenure since 1998 he took extraordinary steps to normalise relations with Pakistan thus showing that BJP was not an anti- Muslim party even while taking care in Hindu interests. He brought into fore Indian nationalism and a vision for India to be respected globally.

Naturally NDA came to power in the general elections, and he continued as PM till 2004. There were power struggles within BJP too. Advani desired PM position, having been the key architect of BJP victory, from mere 2 seats to gaining seats to form an alliance govt. Natural in politics especially when there is no dynasty. Riots in Gujarat in 2002 put the ongoing polarisation of Indian politics especially in North, Maharashtra and Gujarat into a high pitch. This made one of the major alliance partners TDP's Chandra Babu Naidu of undivided AP to pull out of NDA for 2004 elections which were called earlier before the expiry of the term by Vajpayee. CBN would have thought that he would get all Muslim votes too from AP. Net result was both NDA and TDP were hurt badly, the latter much more. YSR got more seats for Congress decimating TDP but benefitting Congress in Lok Sabha with more seats. Note the crucial role of AP tilting between two major party alliances. But it is now reduced with the split of AP and T as explained before.

So, a new coalition of Congress, and several other parties claiming to be secular, but mostly casteist and dynastic. Interesting to note that DMK of TN which was with NDA earlier went into the new coalition called UPA, a special facility for the two major TN parties as explained before. Not for TDP then. But new AP and T states which appear to have ousted out the national parties from their states may have such a facility later if the Centre does not have a party with majority of its own even with alliance as is BJP since 2014-todate. That is perhaps the reason why TRS chief Chandrasekhar is very keen to weaken Modi rule and BJP. UPA govt was weak at Centre due to a strong dynastic remote control by a triad of dynasts and the internal contradictions in Congress and coalition partners once described as coalition dharma by Dr Manmohan Singh. Hence there were many scams and perception of large-scale corruption. More importantly UPA which had 10 years with it, did not attempt a solution for Ayodhya but gave an impression of denial of Ram Janma Bhoomi. And being soft on Islamic terrorists who were wreaking damage in many parts of India. The Nov 2008 terrorist attack also strengthened such a perception about Congress. In addition, some Congress leaders floated the theories of Hindu terrorism and created some sensational cases about a Sadhvi. Also, a single-minded pursuit to convict Modi the Gujarat CM of mass murderer of Muslims did not meet with any judicial success. He was emerging as a victim of the anti-Hindu Congress and its allies. Hindu minds were now being consolidated against Congress.

Fast forward. For the 2014 general elections, Rajnath managed to push Modi in front for spear heading for BJP and NDA. He was not declared as PM face as there were aspirants from BJP itself like Advani. This is also a feature of non-dynastic parties. The type of shrill propaganda by UPA leaders and “intellectuals”, artists etc. perhaps helped the Hindu consolidation. Some celebrities went to the extent of saying that they will leave India if BJP is voted to power. India was getting polarised not so much as Hindu- Muslim but those elites who claimed secularism but were just anti-Hindu. They were in fact totally out of touch with a vast majority of Indians who felt that Hindu bashing has crossed all limits and they decided to vote BJP massively along with its partners in NDA. After a long time from 1985, a national party got a majority of its own and its allies did very well too. Congress was getting defeated in many places. The SG, RG, Priyanka combine, as dynasts did more harm at the electorate, though praised by their coteries and the entrenched “elites”. Such was the rise of the silent Hindu assertion and in a way a renaissance of different kind. Modi became the uncontested leader though a rank outsider to the Delhi lobbies, including those of BJP. The democratic countries of the West which had denied him earlier visa citing human rights issues of Gujarat started wooing him! Modi added the slogan of development as the crucial focus even while undoing the wrongs committed against Hinduism and Hindus. There were bitter writings and speeches against him by the Indian elites opposing everything he did. He has sailed through. He had developed excellent relations with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran even while keeping strong relations with Israel. He tried even with Pakistan. Congress response was more on ‘suit boot sarkar” as he went to foreign countries with excellent attire giving a new look to India. Without describing all the details, BJP's grip on the Hindi states, Maharashtra, Gujarat became more, at the expense of Congress and it spread to NE as well. States like Odisha, AP and T quietly supported NDA so that its deficiency in strength in Rajya Sabha did not affect the govt proposals. NDA could get most things done as they wished. Congress was getting more into disarray.

Naturally therefore for the 2019 elections NDA did better though the “secular” lobbies created many problems, some of it by playing in Muslim sentiments thus polarising Hindus towards BJP/NDA. So also, in the recent 2022 elections in crucial States. The earlier landslide victory in WB by Mamata Banerjee MB, was thought of as a model for the future. The fact that Congress and CPM were decimated in WB was ignored. DMK victory in TN also was a part of such wishful projections. SP with Akhilesh Yadav became the rallying point. They were projecting that COVID would be a saviour against BJP/NDA in addition to anti-incumbency. Results were otherwise. WB and TN are very different as we have described before. Hindu awakening and not tolerating Hindu-bashing have consolidated in the North India, Gujarat. Even in Maharashtra Uddhav in between points out that they are better at Hindutva than BJP. Some Congress leaders tried “soft Hindutva” by running to temples and puja before elections in MP and Rajasthan before. Even RG claimed to be a better Hindu by donning janva and saying he is a Shiv Bhakt. Even MB in WB invoked Kali, Durga etc and performing Chandi-path. In the infotainment sector, Hindu practices of marriage, pujas are built into almost all TV serials, even while there are many religious channels for all religions. There are many serials based on Hindu puranas. These are important indicators of Indian minds young and old, modern or conservative. Indians are ready to openly talk about their Hindu practises and not ashamed as they were made to be so in the early decades of post-independence narratives. This is probably an irreversible part of India now with open political movements starting around mid-1980’s and accelerated since 1990, as briefly described here.

What is ahead now? Many ardent supporters of Congress are not hopeful of its revival until the all the coteries and dynasts are thrown out; even if done immediately victory in 2024 elections to lead the Central govt is very uncertain. Emergence of a strong federation of regional parties is continually turning into a pipe dream or mirage. Now it is Kejriwal who thinks that he will displace Modi. In the process AAP may turn out to be a failure in Punjab resorting to Centre bashing and doing very little of its own. NCR is not the model for Punjab. Nor can mere manifestos for freebies, with competition from parties help as people have seen through empty promises in most places. One easy method is to predict a slide through for NDA with a TINA factor. Or to dream an anti-incumbency which has been disproved in the recent elections and even in Kerala. Or to expect adverse impact of the war in Europe, sanctions on Russia and rising global inflation. These may have some effect but unlikely to be major for Indian politics. Some interesting developments could be some form of understanding between DMK and BJP, as it was once. Another is about Maharashtra especially when NCP gets into trouble in many cases, the aging leader ceases activity. In Bihar unlikely that Lalu legacy can survive. BJP may have to handle Nitish Kumar delicately in order that he does not do a Chandra Babu Naidu. Will SP rejuvenate with Akhilesh? He has to learn to win the hearts of Hindus in UP; his strident anti- Hindu postures would have hurt him. Karnataka elections in 2023 may be an indicator for 2024 parliament seats there which are important for NDA. Factionalism in Congress in Karnataka is more than that of BJP. Do all these uncertainties add up to a hung coalition? Unlikely that UPA type Congress led coalition can come as Congress has an uphill task in winning the hearts of Hindu electorate in the North, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Those aspiring a national role either Congress or a set of regional leaders who temporarily patch up for election, cannot afford to get into strident “secular” anti-Hindu slogans in their enthusiasm to oppose BJP. Their pitch has to be that we can give efficient govt., we are also very concerned about Hindus and their aspirations and bring the great glory of Hindu civilisation with heart and compassion etc. and a violence free society. BJP cannot be only with old slogans and has to revisit some of the extreme steps for cow protection which affect the rural economy. What to do with the aged cattle which are not productive is a major economic issue for all rural households. There are other such issues. Similarly, will the “secular” parties try to educate the Muslim leaders not to go back to old cliches and practices and revisit the needs of women, modern education and skills. They should be advised of their own interests in modernising Muslim societies. Fortunately, there is a good amount of literature by contemporary Indian Islamic scholars about the essentials of Islam and those practices which may be abandoned to modernise. Many middle east countries are setting examples. Muslims may be encouraged to speak against the “Islamic” terrorist elements and not to protect them; but this will require protection by the State to such persons. The ground reality about Muslims, Christians, Hindus or several other religions or social-cultural practices evolved over many centuries, even millennia in India, is that they are not harsh and exclusivist, as described by most vocal political analysts. They have developed a symbiotic and syncretic relations some of it are even local or hyperlocal, not well understood by elites. Therefore, it is easy to weed out extremist thinking propagated by a few ambitious elements within India and abroad. But the real trouble in the democratic electoral process is that some politicians would like to take electoral advantage locally even if it were temporary. Is it easy to evolve an all-party consensus not to politicise this process? Beyond all these there can be a totally unknown event of emergence of a national leader hitherto not well known in Delhi, just as Modi in 2014. (The derogatory words “hard” or “soft” Hindutva are not to be used to describe these processes. What is required is a respect for Hindus and Indian civilisation and getting away from euro-centric views of Indians and their culture. Hinduism has built in processes to respect others even very small minorities and adjust to new situations as demanded in a modernising society, as can be seen by its long history, unless it is severely disturbed or humiliated with one-sided anti- Hindu practices as was done even in post independent India by Indian ruling elites as briefly described earlier in this write up.)

Now coming to governance issues, there is a need to devolve more powers to the States and local govts while keeping the core internal security, defence, foreign affairs, finance, and a few related items under the Centre without interference by the States. Much of what is devolved already by the Constitution appear to be adequate. Mostly due to the licence-permit-quota-inspection-raj, in actual practice the States have not learnt to use their powers wisely in the interests of its people. Some State leaders talk of the freedom for the States only for denying independent investigations by the central agencies, which may be detrimental to their political parties. One other feature of Indian governance is the cumulative load of many past rules and regulations, some even from the British times. If many of these are cleaned up in one sweep, functioning by the Centre and State govts will become a lot better. This in itself would remove many points of friction between the Centre and the State govts. The offices of the Governors have to remain, though at times they are misused. Too much of control by Delhi educational administrators on education need to be diluted with a conscious effort to give freedom to the States to develop quality education in their States. Central agencies and institutions set up by the Centre be exemplars and pioneers in quality and innovation. There is a genuine concern by many well-meaning persons and parents about some States attempting populist measures for perceived electoral gains, thus denying opportunities for the students who want to get high quality education which will take them to the best careers in the world. In addition, the proven reality of the e-education systems has even broken the barriers of confining only to India, or even jurisdiction of universities within the States especially for professional studies and skills. Thus, one cardinal principle should be that the students anywhere in India should have the freedom to take any type of school or college and these should not be constrained by any state by its laws or rules constraining as to what the schools or colleges operating in their states should do. However, all of them shall abide by some broad regulations regarding the number of school years, years for degrees etc. which would be put by the Centre, as it is happening now. If used creatively NEP provides opportunities for all such flexibilities, if done with interests of the future of the students always kept in mind. While giving more freedom to the states to attract investments from the private sector including foreign investors care should be taken to ensure that the rules by States and Centre which are hindrances for the private sector be eliminated as the politics in the state does not affect businesses. This is not suggested on ideological grounds. The most crucial task of governance now to create a lot of better income job opportunities. Since much of the govt money goes on welfare and some of them on freebies which have become a part of electoral politics, very little is left for new investments. Investments create jobs. Private sector, including foreign ones are willing to do so in India, partly due to the geopolitical situation with China. Before they cool off India has to get much of it within its shores to create wealth and jobs. In case of critical geopolitical situations, the States shall abide by the advisories of the Centre to avoid certain companies or countries. In a way this is covered as the part of foreign affairs and security.

There is no prediction nor projection in this write up which started a few days after the election results on March 10,2022. I had explained some of these ideas to my close friends. Then decided to write. Now finished on 28 March 2022. Now India is at stage of fast-moving situations based on the slow evolution during the post-independence years. There are some speedy rises and some hurtling falls. I am not unaware of the reality that it is difficult to separate politics from the selfish ambitions of the practitioners. There are many ambitious politicians in the field still active. There are some hoping for a bad situation which can give them a chance as compromise candidate to be PM. They will also quietly work behind the scenes to create such crisis situations. If Indian people are lucky 2024 will give them another spell of stability and growth. Any fragile coalition during 2024 may be disastrous to their wellbeing. What happens in 2024 will determine the course of events for another five years. In any case some of the suggestions I have given in the earlier two paragraphs are urgent and necessary though they are perhaps hard nuts in near political terms. They are for long term well- being of Indian people and emergence of India as a powerful nation.

Y S Rajan 28/3/2022