VISION 2020: AN ASSESSMENT AND WAY FORWARD

The big national exercise with 5000 experts was followed by the book India 2020; A Vision for the New Millennium. It did create a lot of hope in Indians during 1998 and thereafter Vision 2020 had become a household word in Indian languages as well.

Now we are in the year 2020. What has happened? What was told in the book? What comparison now? Some consider the book as a dream of Kalam. Some look for check lists. In reality it is neither! A good assessment was done by Dr Kalam and Y S Rajan in the book Beyond 2020 (2014). Also Way Forward is given, including actions to be taken by various persons (including youth) and agencies, Panchayat leaders, MLA’s, MP’s, intellectuals, media, etc. are given.

In this Twitter, FB Like, emoji, phase of life today, many want a quick summary! Though it may not cover all items here is one:

GOOD NEWS!!

  • Indian Telecom spread is many, many, times more than what was envisaged.
  • Also in the Services sector, such as Financial services, TV channels (300+ now), cable TV, satellite TV to home, e-commerce there is tremendous growth, not fully envisaged. It is a great success of India.
  • E-Governance has grown much beyond what was thought of in 1995.
  • Overall GDP and GDP per capita have grown more than what was envisaged during 1995 when the national exercise was done. In nominal GDP terms India is now 5th country in the as suggested in the book. GDP has expanded 8.12 times from 1995 to 2019, GDP per capita 5.62 times (less because the population growth of 1.43 times).
  • Agriculture: Grain production has done very well. India is largest producer of milk in the world. Second largest producer of fruits and vegetables.
  • IT industry absorption of many better income professionals, automobile sector (busses, cars, two wheelers, etc.) are now produced in India in a major way and some exports as well.
  • India’s consumer sector has grown much more than expected with variety of goods, as given in SKU’s (store keeping units), available even in small towns and villages, in ranges affordable to many Indians even in the Bulky Base.
  • Aviation sector has expanded a great deal with economy carriers.
  • Aspirations of Indians in all classes Upper middle, middle, lower middle, and bulky base, have grown tremendously.

NOT-SO-GOOD-NEWS!

  • The moment we do per capita based calculation for example: Total milk production divided by population, GDP per capita, Steel production per capita, for almost all items India’s rank falls down sharply. This is partly due to increase in population and partly because the people in the Bulky Base or lower middle class have NOT been given necessary skills to adapt to demands of modern economy. They are left behind. Largely due to one-size-fit-all archaic education from primary school onwards to even higher levels.
  • In Manufacturing sector India has slipped badly. Therefore, most of growth is through import of core sector machines and high tech components, assemblies and systems. Most of IT, Telecom, Biomedical sectors rely almost fully on imported hardware and licensed software. That is one of the main reasons why high income jobs are not created in India. India 2020 EMPHASIZED very much on building up of such INTERNAL TECHNOLOGY strengths- in manufacturing, mining, electronics, chemicals, software, etc. This HARD ROUTE had been neglected by policy makers, business leaders, S&T leaders, and economists. See for details the book Beyond 2020.
  • Agriculture, in spite of general neglect by policy makers in terms of liberalizing the sector, has made a good growth though lower than what was possible as given in India 2020 book. The missed opportunities are: soil testing and suitable management based on it covering all fields in India, drip irrigation, other water conserving (reducing monsoon dependence), etc. See the book Beyond 2020.
  • Modernization of India’s Defence and Security sectors has been slow. Also the import of systems is increasing. The recent Make in India initiative is slow to take off because in the past several DECADES, the indigenous strengths of Indian industries in this sector have been curtails without rapid entry of private sector.

WAY FORWARD

  • India still holds a good position though it is far behind the world economic powers, USA and China. But competition from other smaller countries also provide considerable challenges for Indian exports and even in domestic market. Thus challenges are more than what it was during 1995-2010!
  • India has to accelerate building up internal TECHNOLOGICAL strengths in Indian Industries, big, medium and small, (even through FDI and foreign companies manufacturing in India) and in Indian Labs and academic institutions (ORIENTING THEM TO INDIA-RELEVANT R&D). Need to speed up Make in India and indigenization of Defence and Security sector. (For details see Beyond 2020 book).
  • Indian Agriculture needs urgent modernization through technologies and policy reforms, instead of periodic subsidies and loan waivers. Govt. contribution to farmers should be to build up technological assets for them.
  • Indian education, pre-schools, primary schools, to colleges, Universities, NEED RADICAL ORIENTATION to build up of relevant economic-social skills for youth, the drop outs of any age, those in employment, with LIFE LONG upgrades to cope up with newer demands which continue to come from global competition.
  • Lot more attention to be given to affordable MEDICARE for Indians in the Bulky Base and lower middle classes. Schemes for medical insurance cover is laudable. However actual contact to a doctor is vital; telemedicine can be effective only after a doctor has seen the patient.
  • Foresight and attention to details in implementing tasks are TWO major elements LACKING at various levels of leadership, from top to bottom, in India. It needs correction of mindsets. A tough job!!! Also SCALING UP initial successes is a great science and art India has to master; very weak now!!

THE NEW MINDSET AND STRATEGY REQUIRED

  • If India has to avoid low income trap it will require single minded attention, as was done by China. During 1995 China was not too far ahead of India as it is now; it had an initial advantage of liberalizing their economy a decade earlier to India. They succeeded in rapid growth. It is well described in an e-newsletter Morning Brew 26/12/2019 in its the Decade in Technology “China mostly missed the late 20th century technology boom. So it spent the last decade catching up (sometimes leapfrogging) the West. Credit goes to heavy State investments in the next-gen tech, second mover advantage, and some forced technology transfer”
  • Can India do so dedicating the decade 2020-2030 for implementing such a strategy to ensure good living for all Indians? It is for the YOUTH of India to demand it from their leaders at all levels. Speedy actions are the key, not discursive debates. Also the YOUTH have to adopt a new work culture of working hard and equipping themselves continually with skills and knowledge to win in a competitive world.

Y S Rajan
29th December 2019

My profound thanks to C S Chandrasekkar of Minveli for creating and administering this website for about two decades now. It helps me to reach a wider section of people. My greetings to readers for a great decade ahead!