Demographic Dilemma [Power Point presentation]

-  MULTIPLE CONSEQUENCES

 

Y.S. RAJAN     30/01/08

 

1. During the past 5 to 6 years, I had been concentrating on Education in India. Though I was involved in higher education system and Universities right from my ISRO days during mid 1970'’ upto 1988 as Scientific Secretary, ISRO and remote sensing education as a Visiting Professor in Anna University (1984-88) and later through TIFAC 1988 -–2002 for technology transfer, intellectual property rights (IPR’s). I have taught MBA courses in IMI, part lectures in MDI, BITS Pilani etc., real deeper insights with education began around 2000, more – as a personal study. I started realising that space technology and applications as well as technology development in industries including SME’s even for very “ordinary” items like leather, sugar, textiles, waste utilisation etc. (i.e. not the rocket science” !), though very important, cover only  a small part of Indians. I started looking at those who are left out of these activities. Their percentage is several fold larger.

2.  Completion of the major national exercise on Technology Vision 2020 through TIFAC during 1994-1995 especially in areas of Agriculture, Agro Food Processing, Marine Resources & Natural Products etc and subsequent follow up  Vision 2020 projects in Bihar, Uttaranchal, Kancheepuram, Punjab etc started showing me a stark fact that Indian poverty is to a large extent due to non-reaching of simple well known “knowledge & skills” to large majority of Indians.

3.  Exploration of these led to books like “Empowering Indians” by me. (Those who want PDF file of the whole book please write to me). Then I decided to have a direct experience higher education with large scale reach. So I took up the challenging assignment of Punjab Technical University (PTU) – a predominantly affiliating University during 2002. Punjab post 1995 (after about 15 years of troubled period) was trying to catch up in education. (It is now doing very well under the guidance of my illustrious successor Dr S K Salwan). Most colleges were coming up in all parts of rural Punjab. I started seeing different parts of India for comparing with PTU. All States are in a similar situation – some southern states have an advantage of early start of private sector colleges. IIT’s and IIM’s are too miniscule and not even a nano layer in the context of large number of Indians. I understand clearly the big divide in Indians in terms of educational opportunities. These are expressed lucidly in “Choosing Career Paths” (2002) by me. (Pl. ask me for PDF version if you need one).

4. This book ‘Choosing Career Paths” describes India’s educational dilemma. My approach was to help the youth even amidst the existing oppressive divides and insensitive educational systems which put the children and youth to guillotines of  tests and rejections. Among the several talks delivered by me, one crucial one is about the India’s Demographic Dilemma. While most people (especially elites) take pride in India’s 54% youth (under 25 years), I am painfully aware of its fine texture. These are expressed in terms of a set of vu graphs (power point) and brief explanations in the attachment to this note. While talking on it, I elaborate on each of them, interactively with the audience.

5.  In short, the realities of India are as under :

·  Each age cohort in India is about 20 million i.e. one year old is 20 million, 2 year old, 3 year old upto 25 year old, in fact even upto 30 year old is 20 million in each of the age group.

·  This trend will continue for two decades are more, as people are young; infant mortality is coming down fast. (I will come back to the question of number of older people increasing a little later).

·   But if we examine the internal structure of each of the age group, only about 2% of each of 20 million in each age group get professional education which can earn them some money in the “knowledge economy” affected by global trends. Most of the discussions are around the quality of these about 0.4 millions young persons who come to the job market (including export to the world at large !). (Increased liberalisation of higher education, allowing foreign entities etc may create competition and this 2% may become 4% i.e. say 0.8 million. The Central Government and its control institutions UGC, AICTE etc will resist it).

·   Then above this 2%, about 8% persons get ordinary higher education B.A, B.Com etc in English or Indian languages in various subjects, i.e. minimum 3 years of study after 10+2 school pass. These include advanced diplomas as well. This education swells the list of unemployed. Their education is not focussed on economy ! Even then they are better off  than others about whom we will see in a while. (Thus only about (10% of the Indian youth get higher education whereas 40% to 60% persons get higher education in developed countries; even in many developing countries this ratio is above this level of 10%; world average including all of them is about 23% !).

·   Rest of youth are in a bad situation – remedy does not seem to be in right. About 70% of them i.e. 14 million drop out before 5th  or 8th class. About 20% are 10 pass, 10 fail or 11 – 12 pass or fail. All of them are practically “useless” for “knowledge economy” i.e. about 90% i.e. 18 million are not fit for “knowledge economy” or “global economy”. (Not their fault !).

·   Why this higher education is important ? Of all of the Indians employed only 6% are in organised sector ! 94% is in unorganised sector. 50 years ago Indian industry (public and private) used to recruit less than 25% graduates, rest were school drop out and illiterates. Now more than 60% recruits are with higher education qualifications. After 10 years the ratio will be about 80% (higher education) and rest 20% with specialised globally certified skills. So whatever happens, the train of 90% (18 million) unprepared youth (joining the economy every year (assume any age of entry into economy, 15 years, 18 years, 20 years !).

·   I have given some numbers as a projection in 2015 A.D. The collective and cumulative number of these numbers of unprepared adult Indians is large. The “bottom of pyramid” is a sexy slogan, typically coined by the elite led now by Indian diaspora abroad. But the reality is that we have only a tip of pyramid of Indians which is reasonably relevant in the global context; and a small associated crust of Indians are struggling with their higher education to get some crumbs of the globalising economy. Rest of the 90% Indian youth is totally unprepared for no fault of theirs except being born as an Indian !

·  Now coming to the older population those above 60 years of age are about 100 million now. It will increase more in the coming years. Most of the middle plus rich class person  currently about 300 million will swell this rank of old people in coming years. Those who are elites and are from the group of powerful persons, intellectuals etc (i.e. most of those who ccan access some medical facility) would graduate to 80 – 85 years even without new medical breakthroughs. By 2020 the geriatric Indians will be about 250 millions.

CONSEQUENCES

·  The increasing number of input of persons with higher education as the number is about 2 million every year will create an euphoria of great “superpower”. Companies have a huge supply; they can sit at imperial heights, select and choose – condenscendingly say that “quality is bad – we are very selective”. A few persons will go abroad – the number in global terms will be good 200,000 or more each year! So the slogan of  great Indian Human Capital  can opiate the elite and policy makers !

·  But about 18 million each year will become voting adults with  nothing to hope for. (In fact most of them in the age of 13 – 14 years would be doing some odd jobs – struggle for a livelihood, some of them even earlier in their lives. For those who do some schooling their experience of life  from 8 to 13 years would not have been pleasant as the school system would be “telling them day in and day out” that “they are useless” “incapable” “failures” – they went there only to get some food (mid day meal). They are mostly neglected otherwise even by their parents and definitely by the society at large.

·  What will they think of India or its future ? Or about visions of developed India ? Very little. They want to earn some food and help their families. They want to survive. (They may have some dreams which their experience in life kills at a young age !).

· Purely talking in terms of elections, 18 million such persons (men and women) get into the electoral rolls every year. Election gives them a new dignity.  Each of  5 years, their number will be 90 million. Of about 650 million current electorates (of which only 50% vote), this is not a small number. Often swings in elections take places with 2% to 3% of votes. Often these persons will be voting with a vengence. (It will be good to research into this hypothesis). They do not have the memories of the past : the promises of the politicians and their poor delivery.They will take their pick; whosoever is able to capture their emotions. National level broadcasts may not impact them. Their local level experiences will influence them.

· If social scientists do some meticulous research, they may confirm my hypothesis that these persons have been the propelling force of multiple regional parties (even those with 5 – 10 M.P’s or 20 M.L.A’s) and the main reason of coalition politics over the past two decades (and the helplessness of the main “national” parties).

· In the job front, India is being confronted by a huge jobless group – one from the poor quality post 10 + 2 degree holders (higher education groups) and to a large extent from youth migrating to cities with little or no qualifications. Notwithstanding huge hype of skilling Indians, affirmative actions, reservations, etc. bulk of Indian youth have little possibilities of meaningful jobs. IT & Manufacturing sector can generate say jobs of 1.5 millions; let us assume 4 times multiplier unskilled jobs – maid servants, maintenance persons, drivers etc – still what happens to 12 – 13 million each year ? Agriculture is failing and it can survive only when it sheds large number of persons (from current 60% to 20%) from its fold, so that agriculture can give a decent living. (Reason is simple : primary sector agriculture, poultry, animal husbandry, fisheries etc cannot increase productivity beyond a point. Its contribution to GDP can only be maximum of about 20 – 25%. That means number of people in agriculture should be below 25% to have a decent living ! Ruthless market economics demands that value addition alone is paid ! Cumulative value addition is per capita GDP or national GDP !)

· So the crucial question before India is how to take care of the 90% of Indian children who are inadequately or improperly educated to meet the needs of modern economy and they grow up and face the market economy for a job and electoral politics for voting!

·  Another facet of demographic dilemma : Since the elite / intellectual groups will continue to live up to 80 – 85 years, they form the archaeological layer of Indian policy systems. Their deleterious effect is felt in scientific/academic systems already in a major way. That is the major reason young persons don’t go for science. They are being felt in other systems. Most old persons tend to resist changes in policies and procedures – domestic, foreign, military, industrial etc. This is another great danger, India has to guard against.

India’s demographic dilemma has several other facets. It is a rich area of research. And more importantly an area for immediate action to save large number of children being pushed into the “global” “market” economy without equipping them for coping with it.

Y S Rajan

30/01/08

 

 

Postscript 1

I should like to acknowledge the meeting at ICRIER on 29/01/08 with a brilliant presentation made by Mr Sundeep Waslekar. I made my intervention during the discussions. Comments by him, interest shown by Amb. Arundhati Ghose & Dr C Raja Mohan made me write this piece. Though I talk about these, I had not put them as a detailed write up. Even this is too short.

More  on Education etc, may be seen in my website www.ysrajan.com.

 

Postscript 2

All through my life I am more a person of action rather than theorising model builder and / or philosopher. But I look for theories, models and philosophies to guide me. However, I am ready to speculate and hypothesize beyond these models, philosophies etc. In the area of education especially for bottom 90%, I am not a mere spectator or observer. I am trying to do something to influence policies and also to do something concrete on the ground – help form networks which act. One such is Shiksha India (www. eshikshaindia.in & shikshaindia.org). It is not the usual one – child – one – computer utopia (or good marketing technique for computers and software ?). Even one computer in a school can help to have better content of pedagogy accessible – It is on open source – many teachers are contributing to it. Still at best it can cover 20% part of the 90%. What about 70%? As long as 600 million  Indians do not have electricity, it is difficult to reach any modern concepts to them, as CD’s, TV etc. Well education means building capacity to learn new concepts, often obstructions. I welcome others to spread the message to act to help some of these 90% - even if you cover 0.1% each year ! If 900 groups cover 0.1% each year, we would have solved the problem. Remember 0.1% means 20,000 children each year. There is a cumulative to see them through at least for 10 more years !